Monday, 1 February 2010

My Issue With Statistics

My friend tells me that there is a 99% chance he will turn up for our meeting.

He doesn't come.

Was he lying?


Cairo said...

You will know when he turns up for another 99 meetings? lolx

Jose said...

haha perhaps, but one must remember the gambler's fallacy - each of those 99 other meetings are also subjected to a probability of 0.99 attendance, which means there is still the likelihood he might not turn up!